As the annual State of Origin series descends once again, bringing with it all the fierce interstate rivalry and intensity that fans across Australia live for, the Penrith Panthers are battling for survival in what has become their most trying NRL campaign in years. While the NSW vs. Queensland clash is typically a source of excitement and pride, it’s more of a headache for Panthers coach Ivan Cleary this time around.
Penrith’s playing roster is stacked with Origin-level talent. Their captain and key playmaker Nathan Cleary, fullback Dylan Edwards, winger Brian To’o, back-rower Liam Martin, and lock Isaah Yeo are all regulars in the New South Wales Blues side. Though this is a testament to the team’s quality, it also means that during the critical mid-season weeks, they’re missing their biggest stars — or watching them return from Origin battered and bruised, with little certainty over how quickly they can recover or contribute.
The NRL has built-in byes for clubs around Origin Game Two and Game Three — set for June 18 and July 9 — but this does little to shield teams from the impact of fatigue, disruption, or injury that comes with such high-level competition. In 2025, the Panthers faced the Knights in Bathurst in Round 12 without their full firepower, and there’s no guarantee their Origin stars will bounce back immediately for surrounding fixtures.
Nathan Cleary’s injury history makes the risk even greater. His recurring knee and soft tissue problems are a major concern, and Penrith’s hopes of making the finals rest heavily on his shoulders. He’s missed chunks of recent seasons, yet has always returned in time to lead his team to premiership glory. This year, though, the margin for error is razor-thin.
The Panthers haven’t always emerged unscathed during the Origin period in past seasons either. Back in 2021, they were unbeaten before Origin kicked off — only to suffer back-to-back losses to bottom-tier teams like the Wests Tigers and Sharks. In 2022 and 2023, they managed things better, though even then, defeats to Manly and North Queensland with weakened lineups showed the challenge this stretch of the season poses.
This time, the stakes are even higher. The Panthers entered Round 9’s Magic Round matchup against the Brisbane Broncos dead last on the NRL ladder, carrying just two wins from their first eight games. In a 24-round competition where a team needs at least 12 wins to have a shot at the playoffs — and preferably 13 to be confident — Penrith had already burned through half of their available losses before May even began.
Their early-season performance was a head-scratcher. Things began as expected with a strong 28–22 victory over Cronulla in Las Vegas, but a brutal five-game losing streak followed, casting serious doubts over their premiership credentials. A dominant Easter Saturday win over the Roosters was a brief moment of relief, but it was quickly undone by a flat loss to Manly in Parramatta — a venue that is acting as their temporary home during stadium renovations.
Then came Magic Round in Brisbane. Facing a Broncos side at their fortress in front of a packed Suncorp Stadium, the Panthers roared back to life with a convincing 32–8 demolition job. That performance — with the whole rugby league world watching — served as a reminder of the club’s championship pedigree. It was a statement win, the kind that could mark a turning point if they string together results and surge into September.
Nathan Cleary was, unsurprisingly, at the center of it all. When he’s in form, the Panthers look nearly unbeatable. That game featured a blistering 17-minute stretch where Penrith scored four tries — echoing their epic 2023 grand final comeback. Cleary’s trademark footwork was again on full display, slicing through defenders as if rehearsing a familiar routine. At 27, he’s firmly established as the best player in the game. But that title comes with a caveat: how long can his body endure?
The wear and tear he’s experienced — including shoulder, knee, and hamstring issues — have been ongoing for four seasons now. Still, he’s always returned by the finals and led his team to glory. Whether that pattern can repeat in 2025 remains to be seen.
Adding to the pressure is the gradual erosion of Penrith’s supporting cast due to salary cap constraints. While Cleary, Yeo, To’o, Martin, and Edwards remain, many key players from their earlier premiership teams have moved on. Look no further than the 2021 Grand Final squad: Stephen Crichton, Matt Burton, and Viliame Kikau have all been lured to Canterbury by former Panthers assistant Cameron Ciraldo. Jarome Luai, Cleary’s long-time halves partner, has signed with Wests Tigers, joining former hooker Api Koroisau. James Fisher-Harris and Kurt Capewell are with the Warriors now, and Spencer Leniu lines up for the Roosters.
In their place are promising youngsters and dependable role-players — solid contributors, but not quite the same calibre of game-breakers. This makes Penrith more reliant than ever on their remaining stars. The gap between the Origin core and the rest of the squad is growing, and that imbalance could be exposed during the high-stakes grind of the season’s middle months.
It’s a nervy time for coach Ivan Cleary. Every Origin game is a gamble. Each time his best players run out in sky blue, the risk of injury or fatigue looms large. And with the Panthers’ playoff hopes already hanging in the balance, every result from here matters more than ever.
If Penrith’s elite players can stay fit and their fill-ins can collect enough wins to keep the club in reach of the top eight, they’ll remain a major threat in the postseason. No team wants to face a finals lineup featuring Cleary, To’o, Edwards, Martin, and Yeo — that’s a core with too much experience, too much skill, and too much drive to count out.
But they have to get there first. The next few weeks will likely determine whether the Panthers’ title defense is reignited or extinguished.
