North Dakota State Prepares for Tall Task Against No. 3 Arkansas in NCAA Tournament Opener
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — North Dakota State head coach Tyler Oakes is fully aware of the monumental task his team faces as they prepare to take on the third-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks in the opening round of the NCAA Baseball Tournament.
Oakes didn’t shy away from the underdog label when discussing his team’s upcoming challenge in Fayetteville. “We understand what lies ahead,” Oakes admitted. “Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if some people here don’t even know where Fargo, North Dakota, is located.”
The Bison are statistically the biggest underdog in this year’s 64-team tournament field. They come in with the fewest wins among all qualifying teams—just 20 on the season. The next lowest win total belongs to Arkansas-Little Rock, who has collected 24 victories.
According to the predictive algorithm at College Baseball Insiders, North Dakota State has just a 2.86% probability of pulling off an upset against Arkansas, based on the anticipated pitching duel between Bison left-hander Nolan Johnson and Razorback righty Aiden Jimenez. The forecasted final score heavily favors Arkansas, with projections suggesting a likely 11.49 to 0.87 outcome.
Most indicators suggest that the matchup could be a lopsided affair. However, the Bison proved their grit by securing an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament with a dramatic victory over Oral Roberts in the Summit League Championship.
Coach Oakes highlighted the resilience and competitive nature of his squad, despite their modest record and lower-tier status in the tournament. “You’re looking at a team of fighters,” he said. “We may not play flashy baseball or put on a home run derby every night, but we love to battle. That’s what we do.”
Power hitting is not the Bison’s forte. As a team, they’ve hit just 30 home runs all season. To put that in perspective, Arkansas’s Aloy brothers—Kuhio and Wehiwa—have combined for 31 home runs on their own, outslugging the entire North Dakota State roster.
Still, the Bison may have an X-factor in their game one starting pitcher, Nolan Johnson. A crafty lefty and the Summit League Pitcher of the Year, Johnson will take the mound against a potent Arkansas offense that thrives on driving the ball out of the park.
Though Johnson’s season-long ERA stands at 4.14, that number doesn’t tell the full story. Earlier in the year, his ERA ballooned to 8.42. However, over his last 57 innings of work, he’s allowed only 14 earned runs—good for a 2.21 ERA over that stretch. This late-season turnaround highlights his ability to settle in and compete at a high level when it matters most.
Johnson showed his mettle during the Summit League tournament. In his first appearance, he threw 119 pitches across seven scoreless innings in a tense 1-0 win over Omaha. Just three days later, he returned to the mound and contributed another four strong innings, allowing only one run in the championship game against Oral Roberts.
His pitching repertoire includes a fastball, a slider, and a changeup that’s drawn attention—even from Arkansas head coach Dave Van Horn. Van Horn likened the lefty’s changeup to the classic “Bugs Bunny” pitch—slow, deceptive, and difficult to track.
“It’s a tough pitch to hit,” Van Horn said. “That changeup of his dances around. If you’ve seen the old cartoon, you know the ball just stops midair and shifts direction. I’m not saying his does that exactly, but he’s got quality stuff, and he knows how to use it.”
Johnson himself said his approach is to throw the changeup with the same conviction as his fastball, letting the contrast between the two create problems for hitters.
While the Bison aren’t going to overpower opponents at the plate, their goal is to manufacture runs through sound fundamentals and aggressive base running. It’s a strategy rooted in traditional, “old-school” baseball.
“We focus on executing the little things,” Oakes said. “We can bunt, move runners, swipe a few bases—whatever it takes. It’s not about flashy stats; it’s about doing the job. We’ve got a group of players who play with a chip on their shoulder.”
North Dakota State hopes to catch Arkansas off guard with its gritty, small-ball approach, relying on solid defense, timely hitting, and smart base running rather than slugging their way to victory.
Although the odds are stacked against them, the Bison aren’t backing down from the challenge. In fact, it’s clear they relish the opportunity to play spoiler on a national stage, even if they’re up against a powerhouse like Arkansas in front of a likely hostile crowd at Baum-Walker Stadium.
The Razorbacks, meanwhile, come into the tournament with the momentum of a successful season and a lineup filled with firepower. Hosting the regional for the third straight year, Arkansas will look to assert its dominance early and avoid a potential upset in their opening game.
The first pitch between North Dakota State and Arkansas is scheduled for 2 p.m. on Friday, with streaming coverage available on ESPN+. All eyes will be on whether the Bison can defy expectations and keep the game competitive—or even pull off one of the biggest upsets in recent tournament memory.
Regardless of the outcome, the Bison are embracing the opportunity to compete on college baseball’s biggest stage. Their journey to the NCAA Tournament, fueled by heart and determination, exemplifies the spirit of postseason play—where anything can happen, even when the numbers say otherwise.
As Coach Oakes put it: “We’re here to compete, not just to participate.”
With a team full of underdogs ready to battle, and a standout pitcher who could cause problems for one of the top-ranked offenses in the country, North Dakota State will try to make their mark in the most improbable way—by shaking up the tournament from the very start.
