Andrew Johns Drops Shock Prediction: Penrith Panthers Won’t Reach 2025 NRL Grand Final
In a statement that’s sparked plenty of debate in NRL circles, rugby league great Andrew Johns has gone against the grain with a bold prediction about the Penrith Panthers’ 2025 season. The former Kangaroos and NSW Blues star believes the reigning rugby league juggernauts will fall short of this year’s grand final, ending their run of dominance at the top of the competition.
Speaking on Nine’s popular Freddy and The Eighth segment, Johns didn’t hold back in his assessment of the Panthers’ chances. Despite their recent success, including a historic three-peat of premierships from 2021 to 2023, Johns believes the cracks are beginning to show — and that 2025 will finally be the year Penrith misses out on the game’s biggest stage.
“It’s Just Too Hard” – The Weight of Sustained Excellence
According to Johns, Penrith’s unprecedented run of finals appearances — four consecutive Grand Final showings between 2020 and 2023 — has taken a toll that even the most disciplined and talented teams can’t ignore.
“They’ve been the benchmark for a long time,” Johns acknowledged. “But you can’t keep climbing the mountain forever. Eventually, the wear and tear gets to you, both physically and mentally. It’s just too hard.”
This sentiment speaks not only to on-field exertion but also to the emotional and psychological toll of staying at the summit of elite competition for such an extended period. Constantly being hunted by every other team, carrying the pressure of expectation, and pushing through grueling finals campaigns year after year all contribute to burnout — a factor Johns believes will finally catch up with the Panthers.
Key Departures Changing the Team’s DNA
Much of Johns’ argument centers around the shifting nature of Penrith’s roster. While the Panthers still boast superstar halfback Nathan Cleary and a strong core, they’ve lost several critical players over the past few seasons due to salary cap constraints.
“Each year, they lose another big piece,” Johns said. “You look at Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau, Spencer Leniu, Api Koroisau — these weren’t just role players. They were match-winners.”
These departures have chipped away at the squad’s overall depth and explosiveness. While Penrith’s junior development system remains among the best in the NRL, Johns is concerned that the replacements lack the same impact or experience to deliver in high-stakes finals football.
“Nathan Cleary is still the best game manager in the competition, no doubt,” Johns clarified. “But if you’re relying on him to carry even more weight with fewer weapons around him, that’s asking a lot — even for a player of his caliber.”
Mental Fatigue: The Hidden Opponent
While much is often made of physical injuries and player rotations, Johns raised another factor often overlooked — mental fatigue. Being consistently successful brings pressure few teams ever experience. The grind of playing deep into September every year, preparing for do-or-die matches, and facing opponents who treat every match like a Grand Final can wear down even the most resilient teams.
“It’s not just about skill or game plans,” Johns explained. “It’s about the mental strain. When you’ve played that many finals games in a row, your mind gets tired. And when that happens, it’s harder to find that extra gear.”
For the Panthers, who have been the NRL’s gold standard for several seasons, the challenge isn’t just maintaining form — it’s staying mentally hungry and emotionally sharp.
Rivals Gaining Ground
Johns also pointed out that while Penrith has remained strong, other teams in the competition have been building steadily — and are now poised to strike. He highlighted the Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm, and Sydney Roosters as three clubs that could realistically overtake the Panthers in 2025.
“The Broncos are young and fearless. The Roosters are finally healthy again, and the Storm… well, they’re the Storm. You can never count them out,” Johns said.
He added that these teams have not only bolstered their rosters but also adjusted their tactical approaches to better match up with Penrith’s style. The once-intimidating aura surrounding the Panthers is no longer what it used to be.
“Teams respect Penrith, absolutely,” Johns acknowledged. “But the fear factor? That’s gone. They know how to beat them now.”
The Fallout Among Fans and Analysts
Unsurprisingly, Johns’ prediction has divided opinions. Panthers supporters, understandably proud of their team’s recent legacy, have dismissed the comments as premature or unnecessarily harsh. Social media lit up with reactions, with many fans citing Penrith’s culture, coaching, and continued dominance of key statistical categories as reasons they’re still clear contenders.
Others, however, agreed that Johns may be tapping into something real — a sense that the Panthers, while still elite, are beginning to show signs of mortality.
“It’s not hate,” one fan wrote online. “It’s reality. No team stays at the top forever.”
Strategic Motivation or Honest Concern?
Some pundits believe Johns’ comments could serve as a subtle psychological play — a way of lighting a fire under the Panthers’ squad. With a champion team, criticism can often become fuel. Whether intentional or not, his remarks have given the Panthers’ dressing room one more reason to prove the doubters wrong.
Still, given Johns’ decorated playing career and sharp football IQ, his analysis carries weight. He knows what it takes to not only win but to sustain success over time — and more importantly, how difficult it is to do both.
Can Penrith Prove Him Wrong?
With coach Ivan Cleary at the helm and Nathan Cleary still orchestrating the attack, it would be foolish to write off Penrith entirely. Their foundation remains strong, and their development pathways continue to produce high-level talent.
But as the 2025 NRL season barrels toward the business end, Johns’ warning looms large: the road to the Grand Final is no longer paved with certainty for the Panthers. The challenges of player turnover, fatigue, and rising competition could derail what has been one of the greatest dynasties in recent memory.
The only question that remains now: will Penrith rise once more — or has their golden era reached its final chapter?
