Penn State’s top two NFL draft prospects, Abdul Carter and Tyler Warren, are expected to experience significant drops in the latest mock draft projections.
Abdul Carter’s Draft Position Shift
Carter, widely regarded as one of the best overall players in the upcoming NFL draft, has been a dominant force for Penn State. He was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year after an outstanding season in which he recorded 12 sacks, four defended passes, and two forced fumbles, helping the Nittany Lions secure a spot in the Orange Bowl.
Many draft analysts had previously projected Carter as one of the first three selections in April’s draft. However, a recent mock draft by Nate Tice and Charles McDonald of Yahoo Sports predicts that Carter will fall to the seventh overall pick, where the New York Jets would be eager to draft him.
Tice and McDonald noted that if this scenario plays out, the Jets “would be flying to the podium” to select Carter, calling him the second-best overall player in the draft. They highlighted his potential as a “game-wrecking” pass rusher who could inject much-needed energy into a Jets defense that lost momentum in 2024.
The Jets have had a strong defensive unit in recent years, but there is room for improvement, especially in their front seven. Their new head coach, Aaron Glenn, who previously served as the defensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions, would likely be thrilled to have Carter join the team.
Tyler Warren’s Projected Draft Slide
Penn State’s standout tight end, Tyler Warren, has also been highly regarded as a top prospect in this year’s draft. In the 2024 season, he posted impressive numbers, recording 104 receptions for 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. Additionally, he contributed 218 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. His stellar performance earned him the Big Ten Tight End of the Year award and the prestigious John Mackey Award, given to the nation’s top tight end.
Most mock drafts had Warren being selected within the top 10 to 15 picks. However, the same Yahoo Sports projection has him sliding to the 18th overall pick, where the Seattle Seahawks are expected to draft him.
Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, is implementing a system that heavily relies on tight ends, but the Seahawks currently lack a true star at that position. According to Tice and McDonald, Warren could be an ideal fit for Seattle’s offense, given his athleticism and versatility.
While Warren may not have the largest or strongest hands, his agility and confidence make him a valuable prospect. NFL analyst Lance Zierlein’s scouting report on NFL.com describes Warren as the “ultimate ‘whatever, whenever’ player in the 2025 draft” and praises his ability to play with swagger and a commanding presence on the field. Many believe he has the potential to develop into one of the league’s top tight ends.
The Bigger Picture
Both Carter and Warren remain highly regarded despite their predicted draft slides. While Carter is still expected to be a top-10 pick, landing at No. 7 with the Jets, Warren’s projected drop to No. 18 could make him one of the steals of the draft, especially if he flourishes in Seattle’s tight end-friendly system.
The draft process is always unpredictable, with teams constantly evaluating prospects based on new information, workouts, and interviews. As the draft approaches, it remains to be seen if these projections hold or if both players manage to climb back up the board.
